Tech Hiring Stabilizes, but Remains Far Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

概览

Marketplace Tech examines how the tech job market ended 2025, focusing on an Indeed jobs and hiring trends report and an interview with Indeed senior economist Corey Staley.

The core finding is mixed: tech job postings stopped falling dramatically, but remain well below their February 2020 baseline. Staley says Indeed’s tech job posting index is at 67.2, about 33% below pre-pandemic levels, while health care is about 23% above its pre-pandemic level.

The episode argues that AI is creating demand in some areas, especially AI, machine learning, and data engineering, but this growth has not been broad enough to revive tech hiring overall. Staley also cautions against attributing weak software developer demand only to AI, pointing to pandemic-era overhiring and a broader “low fire” labor market.

分段落总结

[00:00] Tomorrow’s Cure sponsor message

[事实] The episode opens with a sponsor message for Tomorrow’s Cure, a Mayo Clinic podcast about technology and medicine. [事实] The ad highlights topics including AI-powered diagnostics, cancer therapies, surgical technologies, and carbon ion therapy. [推测] The placement connects the Marketplace Tech audience’s interest in AI with a health care technology podcast.

[01:05] Marketplace Tech introduces the weak tech hiring backdrop

[事实] Host Megan McCarty Carino frames tech careers as once being viewed as a safe bet because jobs were plentiful and pay was strong. [事实] She says the tech sector had another “meh” year for hiring, according to Indeed. [事实] Tech jobs have declined for several years, though this year the losses appear to have stabilized. [事实] Job postings in tech remain well below their pre-pandemic baseline.

[01:59] Post-pandemic hiring boom turned into a prolonged slowdown

[事实] Corey Staley says tech hiring surged after the pandemic, then began falling quickly around mid-2022. [事实] He says hiring has remained fairly weak, but has not continued to fall dramatically. [推测] The current market is not in free fall, but the stabilization is occurring at a much lower level than during the hiring boom.

[02:47] Tech postings are about one-third below February 2020

[事实] Staley says Indeed often uses February 2020 as a pre-pandemic benchmark. [事实] He says tech jobs are at an Indeed job posting index level of 67.2. [事实] Compared with February 2020 as 100, tech job postings are about 33% lower. [事实] Staley contrasts this with health care, which is about 23% above its pre-pandemic level.

[03:24] AI stock enthusiasm has not translated into broad tech hiring

[事实] The host notes that weak tech postings may seem surprising given the rise in tech stocks. [事实] Staley says AI is a major part of the stock market story. [事实] Demand for AI workers and AI-related skills has increased, but only about 4% of Indeed job postings ask for AI or AI-related skills. [事实] Staley says AI jobs are holding up or improving, while tech jobs overall have been stagnant. [推测] Investor enthusiasm around AI is concentrated in a narrower slice of the labor market than the broader tech sector.

[04:34] Software development saw the largest pullback

[事实] Staley says software development has been a major area of decline in job postings. [事实] He also says IT support and networking jobs have pulled back significantly. [事实] Among Indeed categories, he identifies software development as probably having the biggest pullback.

[05:08] Workers trained for software roles face difficult transitions

[事实] The host notes that specialized tech roles require time and skill-building investment. [事实] Staley says people who began studying software development in 2020 or 2021 entered school when job prospects looked strong. [事实] He says those workers are now graduating into a very different market with fewer opportunities in those roles. [事实] Staley says it is difficult to move from a software development degree into health care work such as nursing, even though health care is hiring strongly. [推测] The labor market has a mismatch between where workers invested their training and where demand is strongest.

[06:27] Growth is concentrated in AI, machine learning, and data engineering

[事实] Staley says AI and machine learning engineering roles have picked up. [事实] He says AI work has also increased demand for data engineering. [事实] Roles involving data cleaning, data processing, and preparing data for AI models have seen increased demand. [事实] The strongest growth areas include building models, fine-tuning models, implementing them, and preparing data for those systems.

[07:20] AI may affect developer roles, but macroeconomic factors also matter

[事实] After a break, the host asks how to separate AI’s role from other factors in the tech labor market. [事实] Staley says software development roles are more exposed to AI technologies because AI can perform some coding tasks well. [事实] He says the pandemic-era surge included heavy software developer hiring. [事实] He argues that part of the cooldown reflects companies returning to normal after hiring many developers earlier. [事实] Staley also points to a “low fire” environment where employers are generally holding on to existing employees. [推测] AI is likely one factor in weaker developer hiring, but the transcript does not support treating it as the only cause.

[09:11] Employers use AI language in several different ways

[事实] Staley says about half of job postings that mention AI refer to building or applying AI. [事实] He says about 15% of AI-mentioning job postings use AI in a recruiting context. [事实] He also says some employers appear to mention AI mainly as a buzzword to attract candidates interested in the technology. [推测] AI mentions in job postings are not always reliable evidence that a job directly involves technical AI work.

[10:17] 2026 outlook: stabilization, not a hiring boom

[事实] Staley says the tech market has started to stabilize over the past couple of years. [事实] He says stabilization is the most likely employment outcome going into 2026. [事实] He expects possible additional hiring pickup for data engineers and people building AI. [事实] He does not expect an employment explosion or major turnaround in 2026.

[11:00] Episode credits and network promotion

[事实] The episode identifies Corey Staley as an economist at Indeed. [事实] Daniel Shin produced the episode. [事实] A post-roll promotion previews This Is Uncomfortable discussing the sandwich generation and caregiving for aging parents while raising children.

播客点评/总结

This episode is valuable because it separates tech-sector hype from labor-market reality. Its strongest point is the use of concrete Indeed figures, especially the 67.2 tech posting index and the comparison with health care’s stronger hiring position.

The discussion is especially useful for software developers, students, and early-career tech workers because it explains why the market can feel weak even while AI investment and tech stocks are prominent. It also gives a practical map of where demand is stronger: AI, machine learning, and data engineering.

A limitation is that the conversation relies mainly on Indeed job posting data and does not deeply examine wages, regional differences, company size, or worker outcomes after layoffs. [推测] Listeners looking for career strategy may need additional sources before deciding whether to reskill or shift fields.

[推测] The episode is best suited for listeners who want a concise labor-market read on tech hiring, rather than a technical explanation of AI or a detailed job-search guide.