Anchoring Effect / 锚定效应

Anchoring effect is the pull that an initial number or frame has on later judgment. In 106.别再害怕冲突，快来学习谈判术！, the first-offer question is treated as conditional: making the first offer can set the anchor when one has good information, but letting the other side go first can reveal their expectations.

The episode uses a real-estate valuation experiment to show that even professionals can be influenced by nearby listed prices while denying the influence. It also suggests extreme counteroffers as a way to offset an extreme anchor, while warning that the counter must be managed carefully so the negotiation does not collapse.

Key Claims

• Anchors work partly because later judgments adjust from the first salient number.
• Expertise does not eliminate anchoring pressure.
• First offers are useful only when they are backed by enough information about Zone Of Possible Agreement / 协议区间.
• Counter-anchors need explanation and emotional buffering to avoid damaging the relationship.

Connections

• Reservation Value / 谈判底线 and Zone Of Possible Agreement / 协议区间 - anchors can distort these estimates.
• Concession Signaling / 让步信号 - later concessions also signal where the parties may be anchored.
• Behavioral Investing Biases - existing wiki branch where anchoring also appears in investment decisions.
• Motivated Bias / 动机偏差 - related bias that can make people deny being influenced.