A-Share Valuation Indicators

161. 全球宏观和资本市场2026一季度复盘与展望 adds a live-index-level checkpoint. The source says the Shanghai Composite had reached a 4197-point stage high in Q1 2026 before falling below 3900, while CSI 300 and Wind All-A turned negative and ChiNext only barely stayed positive. The episode uses the drawdown less as a top-call indicator than as evidence that A-share floor assumptions must be tested against policy support, domestic yield scarcity, and China Equity Structural Selection / 中国权益结构分化.

A-share valuation indicators are the measurement cluster introduced by E145.上钟了！4000点之上的心理按摩 for judging market heat after A-shares moved above 4000. 张一贞 uses PE versus future returns, stock-bond relative value, deposit-to-market-cap ratios, three-year equity-fund annualized returns, log charts, confidence intervals, and moving-average deviation to shift attention from index points toward expected return, crowd behavior, and drawdown risk.

The core idea is not that one indicator can call a top. The source treats each indicator as a partial map: valuation says how much future return may already be priced in, fund-return history shows whether recent gains are being extrapolated, deposit ratios approximate available outside money, and log charts prevent point moves from being mistaken for equal percentage returns.

Vol.115 全球宏观和资本市场2025展望：短期问题不解决，就没有中期和长期了 adds a macro-confirmation version. Ricky frames A/H repair as moving from valuation and sentiment to leading profit indicators and then to PPI plus enterprise earnings, making indicators useful for distinguishing a policy rally from a confirmed profit cycle.

Key Claims

• PE and ROE-based indicators help separate valuation repair from a phase that requires actual profit recovery.
• Stock-bond relative value can reveal whether equity risk is still compensated compared with safer yield, but it is not a complete forecast.
• Deposit-to-market-cap ratios roughly compare outside cash with equity-market size, while remaining sensitive to IPOs, dividends, overseas flows, and deposit behavior.
• Three-year equity-fund returns work as a Behavioral Investing Biases indicator because very high trailing gains can invite linear extrapolation.
• Log charts matter because 4000 to 5000 points is a different return than an earlier move of the same index-point size.
• Confidence intervals and deviation measures help describe historical extremes, but the market can still overshoot or break them.
• Indicators should inform Position Sizing, exit discipline, and patience, not replace judgment.
• Vol.115 adds that PPI and company earnings are late but important confirmation variables after policy-driven valuation repair.

Connections

• A-Share Bull Market History — historical cycle context that makes current indicators easier to interpret.
• Retail Bull Market Psychology — behavior pattern the indicators are meant to cool down.
• Market Mean Reversion — valuation reversion risk when prices move far from anchors.
• Value Investing — valuation discipline behind the episode’s profit-follow-through question.
• Paper Wealth Vs Cash Value — reason trailing gains should not be treated as already-captured wealth.
• Investment Risk Management — practical use of indicators in sizing, exits, and cash reserves.
• China Policy Easing Pivot, Policy-Driven Market Rally, A/H Share 2025 Barbell, and China Corporate Anti-Involution — vol.115 A/H confirmation branch.