China Equity-Real Economy Gap / 中国股市与实体经济落差

China equity-real economy gap is 153.全球宏观和资本市场2026展望：大年之后，仍是大年？’s year-end version of China Macro Temperature Gaps / 中国宏观温差. Ricky says 2025 was a strong capital-market year, but the gap between Chinese stock performance and real-economy fundamentals remained large rather than closing by year end.

The concept is not a bearish claim that equity gains were fake. It separates asset-pricing drivers from broad macro recovery. Policy belief, liquidity, foreign underweight reversal, AI and technology themes, dividend demand, insurance-fund expectations, and risk appetite can lift stocks before property, employment, consumption confidence, PPI/CPI, and corporate earnings repair.

165.年报季中的真实中国2026 adds annual-report evidence for the gap. The episode contrasts reported GDP growth with weak all-A revenue and profit data in 2023 and 2024, then says the 2025 net-profit recovery was largely financial-sector driven while non-financial companies still faced margin compression. This turns the market-real economy gap into a company-income-statement and profit-margin question, not only a sentiment question.

Key Claims

• A stock-market rally can be real while still arriving before broad economic improvement.
• Real estate, household leverage, employment pressure, wage cuts, and weak consumption confidence are the main source-side caveats in the episode.
• The gap makes Central Balance-Sheet Demand Support / 中央资产负债表托底 and China Deflation Demand Repair / 中国通缩的需求侧修复 important because markets eventually need income, demand, and profit confirmation.
• The source treats 2026 as a structural-selection year rather than a simple repeat of 2025 broad beta.
• The frame should preserve source dating: it records a January 2026 outlook, not a permanent statement about China equities.
• Episode 165 adds that China Industrial K-Shaped Divergence / 中国式K型产业分化 can make index-level or GDP-level readings misleading because financial firms, resources, AI infrastructure, and struggling non-financial manufacturers can move in opposite directions.

Connections

• China Macro Temperature Gaps / 中国宏观温差 - parent frame for divergent macro, market, and perception signals.
• China Real Estate Debt Cycle, Household Balance-Sheet Repair, and China Youth Unemployment - real-economy pressure channels.
• China Policy Easing Pivot, Central Balance-Sheet Demand Support / 中央资产负债表托底, and Short-Term Demand Before Long-Term Reform - policy-repair context.
• A/H Share 2025 Barbell, China Equity Structural Selection / 中国权益结构分化, and China Insurance Funds Equity Allocation / 中国险资入市 - equity-market implementation and flow branches.
• Annual Report Macro Reading, China Industrial K-Shaped Divergence / 中国式K型产业分化, and Hard AI Infrastructure / 硬AI基础设施 - annual-report and sector-divergence evidence added by episode 165.