Podcast Atlas
concept Updated 2026-08-06 Topics: Economics

China Supply-Side Clearing

153.全球宏观和资本市场2026展望：大年之后，仍是大年？ adds a demand-side qualification through China Deflation Demand Repair / 中国通缩的需求侧修复. The source treats anti-involution and capacity clearing as useful but insufficient: without demand repair, price and profit improvement may not be strong enough to validate the equity rally.

China supply-side clearing is 牟一凌’s frame in Vol.112 一次非共识的2024反思和2025展望 | 对话蓝小康X牟一凌 for why strong production can coexist with weak prices and profits. The episode notes that since 2022 or 2023, electricity use and PPI have diverged: output can keep rising while price competition and overcapacity pressure compress margins.

The policy implication is that demand stimulus alone may not repair listed-company earnings. If production volume and industry “involution” keep pushing prices down, the supply ecology has to change so weak firms exit and surviving firms gain pricing, cash-flow, or market-share durability.

Vol.111 关于2025年的四个猜想 adds the policy-signal version through China Corporate Anti-Involution. The episode says medical procurement, new-energy vehicles, batteries, and photovoltaics had become visible enough by late 2024 that central policy language turned toward preventing “内卷式恶性竞争” and regulating both local governments and enterprise behavior.

Vol.115 全球宏观和资本市场2025展望：短期问题不解决，就没有中期和长期了 adds a sequencing caveat: supply-side clearing and New Quality Productive Forces / 新质生产力 need short-term demand repair to become investable at the market level. The source’s A/H view therefore watches whether policy support can move from valuation repair to PPI and earnings recovery.

Key Claims

  • High production volume is not automatically good for shareholders when price and profit per unit fall.
  • A supply-driven economy can generate activity, capacity, and flow while weakening company earnings.
  • Policy may work by changing supply structure and forcing tail firms out, not only by boosting demand.
  • The concept connects macro data to New Order Asset Pricing because investors must ask who actually captures value after supply clears.
  • The vol.111 source adds that supply-side clearing can become a political and diplomatic issue once price wars meet trade backlash and strategic-industry anxiety abroad.
  • Vol.115 adds that supply repair is only one side of the 2025 equity thesis; without demand, price, and profit confirmation, policy optimism can remain a valuation trade.

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