跨阵营选举号召力 / Cross-Camp Electoral Appeal

Definition

Cross-camp electoral appeal is a candidate’s demonstrated capacity to attract voters beyond a party’s normal base, distinguished from winning because opponents split votes, turnout differs, or the party baseline is already favorable.

Current Synthesis

The concept turns victory from an endpoint into an attribution problem. 蒋万安 won a legislative race with non-国民党 votes divided and won the 2022 Taipei mayoralty in a three-way contest. 蒋万安为何陷入苦战：政治世家光环、选战误判与台北关键选民 therefore treats those outcomes as evidence that he can win under those structures, not as clean evidence that he personally expands the party coalition.

Key Claims

• A win proves that a candidate prevailed under one electoral configuration, not why.
• Vote splitting can lower the share needed to win without increasing cross-camp support.
• A strong party geography can conceal a limited personal-vote premium.
• Close reelection polling can update earlier assumptions about candidate strength even without erasing prior victories.
• Independent-voter behavior and turnout provide a stronger test of coalition expansion than core-party consolidation alone.

Evidence

• Divided legislative field: 蒋万安为何陷入苦战：政治世家光环、选战误判与台北关键选民 reports Chiang winning with 46.7% while two non-KMT candidates divided votes.
• Three-way mayoral field: 蒋万安为何陷入苦战：政治世家光环、选战误判与台北关键选民 reports a 42.3% win in 2022.
• Current reassessment: 蒋万安为何陷入苦战：政治世家光环、选战误判与台北关键选民 says a close contest against 沈伯洋 challenges expectations derived from incumbency, party advantage, and earlier wins.
• Independent-voter test: 蒋万安为何陷入苦战：政治世家光环、选战误判与台北关键选民 makes former 黄珊珊 voters pivotal to the current outcome.

Counterevidence & Qualifications

The episode does not supply precinct transfer estimates, voter files, comparable two-candidate races, or a model of the party baseline. A candidate may have cross-camp appeal even in a divided field, and close polls can reflect challenger strength, temporary issues, sampling error, or turnout assumptions rather than an incumbent’s fixed ceiling.

What Changed

• Established a framework separating observed victory from the personal coalition expansion inferred from it.
• Added vote division and soft independent turnout as key identification limits.

Related Concepts

• 政治家族资源优势 / Political Family Resource Advantage - upstream access advantage that can be mistaken for personal voter appeal.
• 软支持者投票率竞争 / Soft-Support Turnout Competition - mechanism through which loosely attached voters test coalition breadth.
• 选战定义策略 / Campaign Definition Strategy - narrative mechanism that can expand or contract appeal during a campaign.