Election Betting Markets

Election betting markets are the historical election-wagering practices described in Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets. Coleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode use older newspaper evidence and election-market history to show that political prediction markets existed long before the Iowa Electronic Markets and current platforms.

The source treats these markets as more than simple gambling. They could forecast winners, indicate victory margins, create public political signals, let prominent figures demonstrate loyalty, and let some participants hedge privately against the public position they had to display. The same features also explain why newspapers and regulators could find them uncomfortable.

Key Claims

• Election betting was a public forecasting practice before modern scientific polling became the media’s preferred election tool.
• Around the turn of the 20th century, U.S. election betting could be visible around venues such as the curb exchange outside the New York Stock Exchange.
• Political figures could use public bets as loyalty signals while managing different private exposures.
• The markets faded when scientific polling gave newspapers a more respectable forecast source and horse racing offered bettors more frequent events.
• Their disappearance helped make the later Iowa revival look more novel than it really was.

Connections

• Prediction Market History - broader historical frame this concept supports.
• Coleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode - researchers who surface the older evidence.
• Iowa Electronic Markets - academic revival after older election markets had faded.
• Prediction Market Ethics - adjacent question of when event wagering becomes socially or legally problematic.