Hindsight Bias / 后见之明偏差

Hindsight bias is the tendency to treat a reported result as obvious after learning it. In 123.人性实验：当心你自己！, the hosts use a 1949-style example where people saw false conclusions about soldiers and still felt the claims were common sense.

The episode uses hindsight bias to defend experimental inquiry. A claim about human nature can feel like something “everyone knows,” but the same audience may accept the opposite claim once it is packaged as a result.

Key Claims

• Common-sense recognition is not proof.
• Hindsight can make weak or false explanations feel inevitable.
• The bias supports self-serving stories because people can retrofit success, failure, or moral judgment after the outcome is known.
• Scientific Self-Correction matters because it keeps “obvious” claims answerable to evidence.

Connections

• Social Psychology / 社会心理学 - discipline whose findings are often mistaken for mere common sense.
• Motivated Bias / 动机偏差 - related tendency to protect preferred explanations.
• Rational Humility - posture needed when an explanation feels too easy.
• Observation Before Inference - method for checking stories before they harden into certainty.