New Order Asset Pricing

New order asset pricing is the source’s broad frame for why old market consensus may misprice assets when the global order, domestic distribution, supply ecology, and policy objectives are changing. Vol.112 一次非共识的2024反思和2025展望 | 对话蓝小康X牟一凌 argues that investors should not treat Donald Trump’s return, China’s domestic policy turn, and enterprise valuation as separate stories; they are linked by a shift from efficiency-only globalization toward security, order, public value, and new demand zones.

The concept is explicitly non-consensus in the episode. It is not a short-term trade signal; it is a hypothesis that old valuation habits may reflect the capital, institutions, and narratives of the previous order.

Key Claims

• Consensus can lag regime change because it is produced by the capital and values of the old system.
• China assets may need to be priced through order, security, distribution, supply clearing, and external demand, not only through near-term stimulus.
• A new order frame still has to become company earnings, cash flow, and valuation repair before it is investable.
• The framework complements Market Regime Shift but narrows it to asset-pricing assumptions rather than all market behavior.

Connections

• 蓝小康 / Lan Xiaokang and 牟一凌 / Mou Yiling — speakers whose arguments combine into the frame.
• Donald Trump, Trumpism Institutionalization, Supply Chain Sovereignty, and Trade Reciprocity Protectionism — external order shock.
• China Supply-Side Clearing, Labor-Share Consumption Rebalancing, State-Owned Enterprise Social Value, and Belt and Road External Demand — domestic and external repricing channels.
• Asset Revaluation Theory, Policy-Driven Market Rally, and Investment Risk Management — adjacent macro-market frameworks.