Trend Following

Trend following is the trading discipline emphasized in EP76 穿越1940：我与股票大作手利弗莫尔的最后对话 through the fictionalized Jesse Livermore conversation. The source frames it as acting after the market confirms direction rather than predicting exact bottoms or tops: use major indexes, moving averages, prior highs, volume, leadership stocks, and higher timeframes to decide whether the market is supporting the trade.

E144.交易的艺术：不预测，统计优势，分散红利，随机波动 adds the statistical version through No-Prediction Trading. A trend signal is treated as an observable market state, not a forecast that the next trade will win; the strategy depends on many repeated entries, payoff asymmetry, broad scanning, Position Sizing, and disciplined exits.

E145.上钟了！4000点之上的心理按摩 adds the portfolio-psychology version. 张一贞 treats momentum rules as a way to admit uncertainty and keep participating without confusing trend strength with valuation comfort, especially when A-Share Valuation Indicators suggest a late-stage A-share rally.

Key Claims

• Trend following treats price action as evidence, not as a guarantee; the trader still needs position sizing and exit rules.
• The episode argues against buying through a falling trend just because an asset is cheaper.
• Right-side entry means accepting that the lowest price is missed in exchange for a position that starts with better confirmation.
• The method favors leading stocks that are stronger than their sector and market, rather than laggards that only look cheap.
• Higher timeframes such as weekly or monthly charts can reduce emotional reaction to daily or intraday noise.
• The method depends on Stop-Loss Discipline and Pyramiding; trend following without exits can turn into denial.
• E144 separates signal from prediction: “hotter” market conditions describe participation and strength, not single-trade certainty.
• Broad scanning and small entries let trend following behave like a repeated positive-expectation system rather than a few heroic calls.
• E145 adds that trend-following rules can sit beside Value Investing in Multi-Strategy Allocation, with the value sleeve reducing heat exposure while the momentum sleeve follows the data.

Connections

• Jesse Livermore — main historical teaching case.
• Nvidia — modern chart example used to explain waiting for confirmation.
• AI Equity Valuation Risk and Speculative Bubble Psychology — context where trend discipline is contrasted with AI-boom narratives.
• Investment Risk Management, Stop-Loss Discipline, Pyramiding, and Averaging Down — supporting rule cluster.
• Market Regime Shift — trend signals can change when liquidity, policy, or market structure changes.
• No-Prediction Trading, Diversification Alpha, and Random Market Narratives — E144’s statistical, diversification, and narrative-risk extensions.
• Multi-Strategy Allocation, A-Share Valuation Indicators, and Drawdown Psychology — E145’s hot-market and strategy-mix extension.