U.S. Mega-Cap Tech Right-Side Trade

146.美国经济这么差，美股还能继续涨吗 | 串台《美轮美换》 adds a later earnings-season version. The source says U.S. equities can keep rising because Big 7 companies deliver acceptable or strong results, Amazon beats expectations, Apple supports the stock through buybacks and cautious AI spending, and Meta shows the market’s sensitivity to aggressive AI capex without a clearly cloud-like revenue support.

U.S. mega-cap tech right-side trade is the source’s view that large U.S. technology stocks still had momentum and fundamental support at the 2025-01-16 recording date, while becoming more volatile and more dependent on future belief. Vol.115 全球宏观和资本市场2025展望：短期问题不解决，就没有中期和长期了 compares the market to a late-1990s right-side phase: not early, but not necessarily at immediate collapse.

The concept is source-scoped. It does not update the current state of U.S. equities; it records the episode’s dated investment frame: strong U.S. data, lower 2025 rate-cut expectations, continued high-end chip demand, overseas pension and sovereign-fund allocation, and concentrated M7 leadership.

133.全球宏观和资本市场2025年中盘点：中国的三个温差和美国的三个预期差 adds the mid-year qualification. The source says U.S. equities recovered after the April shock partly because allocators lacked better substitutes, but the technology narrative had been weakened by DeepSeek, slower AI commercialization, and questions about capex ROI.

Key Claims

• The source treats the United States economy as still strong at the recording date, with employment, capacity utilization, and labor data supporting risk assets.
• Federal Reserve cuts were expected to be fewer than earlier market hopes, but not enough by itself to break the trade.
• The technology cycle is compared to 1997-1998: right side, increasingly mature, but not clearly finished.
• The episode watches whether Microsoft, Meta, and other large buyers reduce high-end chip demand before turning strongly negative on Nvidia and related leaders.
• Robotics and embodied automation are treated more cautiously because workflows, governance, unions, reliability, and business processes can slow substitution even when technology improves.
• The main risk is Future pricing: if belief, capex ROI, or technology adoption expectations weaken, volatility can rise even without immediate profit collapse.
• Episode 133 adds that right-side momentum can coexist with weaker narrative headroom; benchmark demand may hold prices up even as U.S. 2025 Expectation Gaps grow.
• Episode 146 adds that buybacks, earnings delivery, retirement-account exposure, and scarce alternatives can support the trade even when household economic sentiment is poor.

Connections

• Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon — mega-cap and AI-infrastructure context.
• Federal Reserve, Donald Trump, and U.S. Treasury — U.S. macro and policy backdrop.
• AI Equity Valuation Risk, Mega-Cap Concentration Risk, and Market Regime Shift — valuation and index-risk branch.
• Fact/Future Asset Pricing — belief-based valuation frame.
• Investment Risk Management and Asset Allocation — ordinary-investor implication.
• U.S. 2025 Expectation Gaps, AI Equity Valuation Risk, and Currency Anchor Transition / 货币锚转换 — mid-year technology, fiscal, and dollar-confidence qualifications.
• Equity Retirement Asset Binding, U.S. Economic Experience Split, Apple, Amazon, and Meta - later earnings, buyback, and market-sentiment extension.