Carlota Perez
Carlota Perez appears in E162.康波周期中的AI：新技术总在萧条期爆发，bad times make good people as the source’s main reference for innovation-cycle staging. The episode distinguishes Perez-style technology cycles from economic-cycle frameworks such as Kondratiev Cycle: the former tracks installation, bubbles, synergy, and maturity, while the latter asks why broad economic waves turn.
The episode applies this frame to AI by arguing that the current stage looks closer to an introductory or installation period than a mature deployment period. That makes Technology Installation Cycle and AI Equity Valuation Risk closely linked: early evidence of technical importance does not remove the possibility of an installation-stage bubble break.
AI 发展了 4 年，把应用发展没了？｜AI 年中复盘 adds a second AI-cycle use through 曲凯 / Qu Kai. Qu invokes Perez to ask whether AI, nearly four years after the late-2022 ChatGPT shock, is still in explosion, moving through frenzy, or approaching a turning point where the market rotates from model excitement to application disappointment and then back toward grounded deployment.
Connections
- Technology Installation Cycle — main concept page for the Perez-style staging used in the source.
- Kondratiev Cycle — economic-cycle frame the episode compares with innovation-cycle staging.
- AI Equity Valuation Risk — market-price risk when investors discount too much of a future deployment wave.
- Depression Driven Innovation — weak-period context in which new technologies begin installation.
- 曲凯 / Qu Kai and AI Application Market Trough — 42章经 mid-2026 application-cycle reading that reuses Perez-style staging.