Coleman Strumpf

Coleman Strumpf appears in Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets as the economist who connects modern prediction markets to older election-betting history. The episode uses his racetrack memories and teaching experience to show that betting markets can reveal information, status display, risk appetite, and human behavior at the same time.

Strumpf’s historical turn begins when Paul Rhode points him toward 1924 newspaper material on election markets. Their research expands the story from the Iowa Electronic Markets back to older Election Betting Markets, including U.S. and European election-wagering traditions.

Source Position

• Strumpf argues that prediction markets should be understood through both information aggregation and gambling-adjacent behavior.
• He initially expected older election markets to contain little useful information, then concluded they were often good at indicating winners and victory scale.
• He helps explain why election markets faded: media discomfort, scientific polling, and the greater event frequency of horse racing changed the attention and betting environment.

Connections

• Paul Rhode - research collaborator who surfaced older election-market evidence.
• Election Betting Markets and Prediction Market History - historical branch his work anchors.
• Iowa Electronic Markets - modern academic project that led back to older history.
• Market Efficiency and Prediction Market Ethics - adjacent information and gambling-boundary concepts.