Howard Marks / 霍华德·马克斯
Howard Marks / 霍华德·马克斯 enters this wiki through vol.124.信息过载后如何保持冷静？ | 投资账复盘, where 大卫翁 uses Marks’s April 2025 memo “Nobody Knows II” as a discipline for investing during tariff shock, trade-war anxiety, and market volatility.
The episode’s takeaway from Marks is not a specific market forecast. It is a three-step behavioral filter: receive information, ask whether anyone truly knows what will happen, and only then decide whether portfolio action is justified. That makes Marks a reference point for Information Overload Knowledge Trap, Macro Event vs Macro Trend Distinction, and Investment Risk Management.
135.宏观大事频发期如何保持定力？| 投资账2025半年度复盘 adds the practical after-test. 大卫翁 says rereading Marks helped him avoid selling in the April tariff-war panic, while the same source stresses that “nobody knows” should lead to the most logical action or inaction rather than to paralysis.
134. 投资大师系列先导篇：“他们不只赚了很多钱，更创造了理解世界的方法” adds Marks as 大卫翁’s most personally resonant recommendation in the 投资大师系列. The preview says Marks’s cycle thinking travels beyond portfolio management into career timing and living through an era, deepening his connection to Investment Worldview Fit.
Connections
- 起朱楼宴宾客 and 大卫翁 - source show and host using Marks’s memo as an uncertainty frame.
- Information Overload Knowledge Trap - information access does not equal usable judgment.
- Macro Event vs Macro Trend Distinction and Market Regime Shift - the episode’s distinction between current shock and investable long-term trend.
- Investment Risk Management, Portfolio Suitability, and Sleep-Well Portfolio Test / 睡眠理论 - practical behavior-control pages extended by the source.
- 投资大师系列 / Investment Masters Series, Investment Master Narrative / 投资大师叙事, and Investment Worldview Fit - episode 134’s use of Marks as a cycle-and-worldview reference.
- Ordinary Investor Macro Boundary and Investment Plan Execution Discipline - episode 135’s use of uncertainty discipline after a volatile first half.