缪延亮 / Miao Yanliang

Overview

缪延亮 is the economist interviewed by 厚望 and Amiee about macroeconomic transmission, rates, the dollar, U.S. debt, gold, and AI. The source says he worked at the IMF, participated in euro-area crisis work, returned to China’s foreign-exchange administration in 2013, and later analyzed macro policy and asset prices in financial markets.

Current Profile

His represented method joins models with practice. He uses general-equilibrium and intertemporal reasoning to identify constraints, then checks how households, firms, markets, and policy feedback alter the result. The episode’s distinctive extension is to treat AI not only as an industry or asset theme but as an aggregate investment, financing, labor, price, and distribution force.

Key Characteristics

• Uses general-equilibrium transmission to test local-policy intuition against system-wide responses.
• Treats models as organizing tools whose applicability and boundary conditions require practical judgment.
• Prioritizes interest rates and exchange rates as macro variables connecting policy to asset allocation and daily life.
• Separates real technological value from the valuation of technology-linked assets.
• Keeps debt sustainability and safe-asset analysis conditional on growth, rates, deficits, buyers, institutions, and market behavior.

Evidence

• Method and experience: 宏观经济如何传导给我们每个人？ connects IMF and crisis experience to model-boundary judgment and policy feedback.
• Rates and sovereign debt: 宏观经济如何传导给我们每个人？ supplies the neutral-rate, dollar-cycle, r-versus-g, fiscal-dominance, and safe-asset arguments.
• AI and distribution: 宏观经济如何传导给我们每个人？ links AI capex and equity wealth to demand while distinguishing productivity from who receives the surplus.

Qualifications

This profile comes from one edited podcast summary rather than a complete biography, publication record, or independent review of his forecasts. Institutional dates, crisis roles, market figures, and policy judgments remain source-scoped.

What Changed

• Added the wiki’s first profile of 缪延亮 and his model-plus-feedback macro method.
• Recorded his AI-as-macro and Treasury-safe-asset arguments with explicit uncertainty boundaries.

Relationships

• 《货币的秩序》 - book relationship.
• 面基 - interview-show relationship through 厚望.
• 投资ABC - collaborating-show relationship through Amiee.
• General-Equilibrium Policy Transmission / 一般均衡式政策传导 - core analytical-method relationship.
• Neutral Rate Drivers / 中性利率驱动因素 - interest-rate framework relationship.
• AI Macro Capital-Labor Transmission / AI 的资本—劳动宏观传导 - technology-macro framework relationship.