牟一凌 / Mou Yiling

牟一凌 is introduced in Vol.112 一次非共识的2024反思和2025展望 | 对话蓝小康X牟一凌 as the [[MinshengSecurities|民生证券]] strategy chief. In the episode she provides a sell-side strategy frame for 2024’s inconclusive style swings, China’s production-price divergence, consumer policy, U.S. dollar contradictions, AI valuation patience, and possible 2025 upside through Belt and Road External Demand.

Her core contribution is to separate macro strength from listed-company profit. She argues that Chinese national competitiveness, high production volume, or stronger industrial capacity can coexist with lower prices and weaker earnings if China Supply-Side Clearing has not occurred.

Key Claims

• 2024 looked like a year of many near-reversals, but most did not fully validate, so style narratives stayed unstable.
• Production-driven growth can raise output and electricity use while worsening PPI and profit pressure.
• Consumer subsidies that lower effective prices may release quantity and welfare without becoming classic inflationary demand stimulus.
• The most interesting 2025 possibility is an offensive [[BeltAndRoadExternalDemand|Belt and Road demand]] breakthrough rather than only defensive overseas expansion.

Connections

• 民生证券 / Minsheng Securities — institutional affiliation in the source.
• 蓝小康 / Lan Xiaokang — dialogue counterpart.
• China Supply-Side Clearing, Labor-Share Consumption Rebalancing, Belt and Road External Demand, and AI Equity Valuation Risk — concepts attached to her analysis.
• 起朱楼宴宾客 / Qizhulou Yan Binke — source show.