Peter Wason / 彼得·沃森

Peter Wason appears in 132.争论与说服：我们为什么吵架，怎么才算赢？ through the number-rule experiment: people see a few confirming examples, infer a rule, and often stop searching for disconfirming evidence. The episode uses this as evidence that people tend to map small samples onto large realities too quickly.

The source’s Wason thread supports [[PublicArgumentForBystanders|public argument]] and [[ConstructiveDissent|constructive dissent]]. Argument can enlarge the sample by adding facts, rival cases, and alternative hypotheses, but only if participants do not immediately assimilate every new example into the old belief.

Connections

• Cognitive Inertia / 认知惰性 - stopping the search early reduces mental cost.
• Observation Before Inference - methodological corrective to small-sample certainty.
• Constructive Dissent / 建设性异议 - argument can help expose what the first sample missed.
• Rational Humility - confidence should fall when a rule has not been actively tested.