U.S. Treasury

The U.S. Treasury appears in EP39 风满楼下集：全球衰退慢慢逼近，严防死守步步为营！漫聊下半年美股、美债、汇率 through debt issuance, short-bill strategy, long-bond supply, and federal debt-service cost. The speakers connect Treasury financing choices to Federal Reserve policy pressure and to whether long-duration Treasury products remain attractive after accounting for supply and currency risk.

EP57 美股动荡，东升西降？这回是走是留 keeps Treasury debt pressure in the background of the U.S. equity discussion. The speakers argue that Donald Trump inherited a more constrained fiscal and inflation environment, making debt-service cost and policy room part of the risk context for U.S. assets.

Source Position

• The episode suggests that high rates raise U.S. fiscal interest costs as low-cost debt matures and is refinanced.
• Janet Yellen is discussed through a short-debt issuance strategy that the speakers interpret as waiting for lower rates before locking in more long-term borrowing.
• The U.S. Treasury market is not treated as risk-free for non-dollar investors because Treasury Duration Risk and Currency Risk can both affect returns.
• EP57 treats debt pressure as one reason cash and short-duration safety can be valuable during Market Regime Shift.

Connections

• Janet Yellen — policy figure attached to the issuance discussion.
• Federal Reserve — rate path affects debt-service cost and bond pricing.
• Treasury Duration Risk and Currency Risk — key risk frames from the episode.
• Investment Risk Management — practical bond allocation has to include duration, supply, and exchange rate.
• Donald Trump and Index Reentry Discipline — EP57 context for fiscal pressure and waiting before adding equity risk.